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May 3, 2026

The four-trillion-dollar bet

The original evidence block listed 2026 capital expenditure figures based on late-January and February 2026 analyst estimates:
  • Microsoft listed at approximately $120B
  • Alphabet at $175 to $185B
  • Meta at $115 to $135B
  • Oracle at approximately $30B
  • Top 5 hyperscaler total at approximately $602 to $700B
On April 29, 2026, one day before original publication, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta issued upward revisions to their 2026 capex guidance during Q1 2026 earnings calls. The corrected figures are:
  • Microsoft: approximately $190B (calendar year 2026)
  • Alphabet: $180 to $190B
  • Meta: $125 to $145B
  • Oracle: approximately $50B
  • Top 5 hyperscaler total: approximately $745 to $775B
Surrounding text was also updated, including the US-GDP-percentage figure (now approximately 2.4%) and the AI-specific infrastructure subtotal (now approximately $570B).
The essay was finalized using analyst-consensus estimates current as of late January and February 2026, before the April 29 earnings cycle. The April 29 revisions had not been incorporated when the essay went to publication on April 30. The editorial process did not include a final pre-publication check against the most recent earnings disclosures. We have updated the editorial workflow to require an explicit pre-publication verification against the latest earnings cycle for any piece referencing recent corporate guidance.
The thesis of the essay is unchanged. The bet has grown larger, not smaller.